Banks are safer but debt is a danger

Banks are safer? Safe…er not safe! The dangerously exponential leveraged bad debt, hidden away in complexity/opaque instruments by creative accounting techniques, does not just disappear into thin air.

Pyramid Schemes have a problem. The problem is that the scheme cannot go on forever. No wealth has been created The fraud lies in the fact that it is impossible for the cycle to sustain itself, so people will lose their money somewhere down the line. Those who are most vulnerable are those toward the bottom of the pyramid.

Despite the illusion of legality presented by these revamped schemes… it is important to recognize the characteristics of such so-called investment plans.

The bottom layers of their Pyramid Scams were crumbling away, and the upper layers were starting to rumble. Central Bankers and Politicians had to save the world (i.e. their pals) in danger. They pledged their pals to do "whatever it takes", even stooping down to manipulating the taxpayer towards bailouts the likes of which had never been seen before, effectively leading entire countries towards financial disaster.

In a pyramid scheme, people in the upper layers typically profit while people in the lower layers typically lose money… Therefore, a pyramid scheme is characterized by a few people (including the creators of the scheme) making large amounts of money, while most who join the scheme lose money.

Iceland and Greece are examples of how democracy/citizens stood up or caved in to the powers that be. Should ruling politicians be beholden to their citizens? Apparently, politicians/leaders are puppets with their own masters, usually covert and unwilling to be exposed.

Apparently, Capitalism has an adage: Privatise the Profits, Socialise the Losses.

Adair Turner: After the crisis, the banks are safer but debt is a danger[2]
Economic recovery has been weak because of a massive growth in leverage

It is said that generals often plan to fight the last war. Ten years on… many experts fear a new financial crisis… threatened by excessive debt.

The financial crisis began because of dangerous features within the financial system itself. Massively leveraged investment banks engaged in socially useless trading of huge volumes of complex credit securities and derivatives. New forms of secured funding left the system vulnerable to self-reinforcing runs if confidence ever cracked. Banks operated with absurdly low equity ratios, so that when the market crash came, counterparties doubted their solvency.

The excessive risk-taking was allowed by bad regulation justified by flawed economic theory.
Global bank capital reforms sought to make it easier for banks to fund rapid credit growth.

But economic growth has been anaemic despite massive policy stimulus. This has produced not the overheating which economic theory might have predicted, but a decade of sluggish growth and inflation averaging well below target. True, over the past year the global economy has begun to perform better, but only because of large and growing fiscal deficits in both the US and China.

That poor performance reflects factors more fundamental than unnecessary financial innovations and inadequate capital regulation. The crisis reflected faults within the financial system which had grown over a decade, but the post-crisis recovery was so weak because of a massive growth in leverage… over the previous half-century.

Since the crisis, that debt burden has not gone away, but simply shifted around the world economy from private to public sectors within developed economies and from developed economies to China, whose debt to gross domestic product soared from 150% in 2008 to 250% by 2016. Total global debt as a percentage of GDP… is now higher than ever.

That debt overhang leaves the global economy dangerously vulnerable to shocks. Ultra-low interest rates have made even huge debts affordable

China's debt boom helped keep the global economy going between 2009 and 2016
with interest rates still low in the US and zero in the eurozone and Japan, there is far less potential than in 2008 to offset a big slowdown with rate cuts.

A deep economic recession, made worse by a large debt overhang, could occur even if not a single big bank went bankrupt or needed to be rescued with public money.

worrying about a repeat of 2008 is planning for the last war.

Lord Adair Turner was Chair of the Financial Services Authority from 2008-13, and Chair of the regulatory committee of the international Financial Stability Board. In other words, he was very much one of them or atleast one of their puppets!

The FSA, now discredited and abolished, was led by Lord Adair Turner as Chair and Sir Hector Sants as CEO. The regulator who presided over the bailouts!


[1] Financial crisis: Are we safer now?
[2] After the crisis, the banks are safer but debt is a danger

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